Change in the Land Down Under? Australia’s Possible Reaction to Trump 2.0
Beijing’s state media recently published an article drawing attention to Washington’s apparent plans to use Australia as a “beachhead” for the looming Indo-Pacific war. Besides missing the strategic context of Australia’s thinking post-World War II, the piece makes a brazen attempt to drive a wedge between Australia and the United States.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) seeks to find points of weakness in the relationship and rupture or disrupt the Australia-United States relationship in this context. However, under the upcoming Trump administration, the Australia-United States alliance is not “imperiled,” and China’s folly in reading this bilateral alliance is that it assumes there is room for maneuvering.
Americans and Australia have enjoyed a stable relationship. In government circles, Americans are deeply trusted and respected for their commitment to the liberal rules-based order. Further, Australians enjoy a lifestyle that is largely underwritten by the security umbrella afforded by Washington.
Australia-United States mutual security interests form the foundation of the partnership. After all, it is easy to build an alliance when partners are singing from the same song sheet. Trump’s first-term “America First” policy was not a concern for Australia. In fact, Canberra was, in many ways, a benefactor of enhanced American power.
Australia’s sea lines of communication remain free and open, and the U.S. military’s bases throughout Australia make use of Australia’s prime real estate at the heart of the Indo-Pacific. Australia’s rotational hosting of U.S. marines, intelligence partnerships, and information-sharing agreements, as well as Australia’s vast investment in the U.S. military-industrial base, ensure Australia is paying its way. The rotational basing of U.S. nuclear-powered submarines in the land down under will free up shipyards in America and diversify the options for maintenance and servicing for the U.S. Navy.
The New Administration
Trump’s next term is heralded with concerns over the business mogul-turned President’s “transactional approach” to alliances.
Is this such a bad thing? Not really.
One must give a little to get a little, and in the context of the Australia-United States alliance, Canberra gets quite a lot. To pay its fair share for defense, Australia might consider broadening the force posture initiative that sees U.S. Marines rotate in Northern Australia.
Christmas Island, an Australian territory in the Indian Ocean, has undergone runway developments recently. Leasing Christmas Island to the United States would be a financial and strategic win for Australia and would allow Washington to diversify its Indian Ocean foothold away from Diego Garcia. In the Pacific, Australia’s Norfolk Island could once more become a military-strategic outpost of significance for the United States.
This is not to say it is all smooth sailing. Every relationship has its bumps. Trump’s populist rhetoric is unnerving the current Australian government. Australia’s 2025 federal election is likely to usher in a coalition government running on a platform of “Getting Australia Back On Track.”
Existing points of departure between Australia and the United States sit largely around Australia’s commitment to save multilateralism and to combat climate change. However, the outcome of Australia’s federal election may yet render these differences obsolete.
The China question and its role in the Australia-United States alliance is indeed one to watch under Trump 2.0. Both countries need to individually balance their economic engagement with China while also protecting their strategic interests.
Since Trump’s first presidency, it has become evident that China is no longer merely a strategic competitor; it is a threat.
Beijing’s aggressive or testy behavior in the South China Sea, the Antarctic, and even Europe are all illustrative of a rising power reshaping the extant rules-based global order as it sees fit. As the old saying goes, when someone shows you who they are, believe them.
Australia finds itself still in the same delicate position under Trump 2.0 as under Trump 1.0. It will seek to maintain a strong economic relationship with China, its largest trading partner, while also supporting U.S. efforts to confront and compete with China.
The fact that a Chinese state-run media source believes it useful to publish an article warning Australians of the perils awaiting a deeper relationship with the United States is quite illuminating. Much more public work needs to be done under Trump 2.0 to celebrate and, perhaps in some areas, deepen the alliance.
Elizabeth Buchanan is the Australia-U.S. Alliance Visiting Fellow at the Center for the National Interest. Follow her on X: @BuchananLiz.
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